“The freight industry no longer moves in cyclical waves; it seems to move in shockwaves.” – This opening remark captured the essence of the freight industry in 2025 and set the tone for the panel discussion, Freight Industry Lessons From 2025 to Navigate 2026.
2025 in context, volatility without a single trigger
What played out over the year felt more like a sequence of shocks, with markets reacting to tariffs, capacity constraints, and trade policy signals more quickly than supply chains could recalibrate.
In many ways, 2025 resembled the disruption of 2020 and 2021, but without a pandemic as the trigger, where many assumptions were challenged and rewritten altogether in several cases.
A significant volume of dedicated e-commerce capacity shifted across regions in a short period, resulting in increased volatility. E-commerce flows pivoted rapidly into Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, redistributing pressure rather than eliminating it.
At the same time, tariffs introduced uneven demand patterns across both air and ocean. Short air freight spikes appeared whenever new tariffs were anticipated, while ocean freight saw heavy front-loading earlier in the year, leaving the traditional peak season looking unusually muted.
What became clear was that markets were responding to expectations as much as confirmed policy.
Exporter reality and accelerated diversification
From an exporter and manufacturer perspective, 2025 accelerated diversification in sourcing across Asia. Production expanded into Southeast Asia, India, and other alternative origins, but without displacing China’s upstream role.
Deep supplier ecosystems, especially for electronics, semiconductors, and automotive manufacturing, remained rooted in China, meaning components continued to flow outwards even as final assembly shifted elsewhere.
The importance of schedule integrity in ocean freight was examined as it had become a growing concern, pushing exporters to consider air, multimodal solutions, and even cross-border trucking within Asia to bridge timing gaps.
Importer and retailer behaviour
From the importer and retailer side, tariff uncertainty forced changes in buying behaviour throughout 2025. Inventory buffers were increased to protect against sudden policy changes, often through front-loading shipments. However, this came at a cost, both financially and operationally.
As sourcing diversified, retailers encountered new capacity constraints, particularly for air freight out of Southeast Asia and India.
Capacity did not scale at the same pace as manufacturing shifts, resulting in higher rates, longer transit times, and less predictable service unless premium uplift was secured.
This reinforced the importance of tighter fulfilment planning, SKU rationalisation, and more disciplined supplier performance tracking.
Contracting and logistics strategy, resilience over price
From a logistics service provider’s perspective, 2025 marked a clear shift in how freight contracts were structured. Shippers increasingly moved away from pure rate certainty and towards risk protection.
Minimum quantity commitments re-emerged, not as a legacy practice, but as a way to stabilise access to space. Premium products, guaranteed loading, rollover protection, and predictable transit windows moved from optional to essential.
Modal strategies also evolved. Fixed routings became less viable as congestion and reliability issues surfaced across traditional hubs.
Forwarders were forced to design flexible networks, combining air, ocean, and land options, bypassing congested hubs, and responding dynamically to disruptions rather than relying on static plans.
Looking ahead to 2026, uncertainty remains the baseline
When the discussion turned to 2026, the consensus was cautious but clear. Demand linked to semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and high-value electronics is expected to remain strong, though potentially less linear. Capacity constraints, particularly in air freight, are likely to continue shaping rate behaviour.
Ocean freight carries a major wildcard in the potential reopening of the Red Sea. While this could shorten transit times and soften rates over time, the transition itself may introduce congestion and disruption as networks are reconfigured. As noted during the discussion, periods of chaos often provide temporary support to air freight rather than weakening it.
The common thread into 2026
Across all perspectives, the closing message converged on adaptability. Surprises are expected, but the industry has proven its ability to pivot, rebalance, and respond under pressure.
The strategic takeaway was unambiguous: information now carries the same weight as capacity.
Visibility systems, exception management, and digital documentation are no longer efficiency tools. They are a risk-management infrastructure.
The ability to see disruption early, act quickly, and adjust contracts and routings in near real time will define which supply chains cope best in 2026.
The lesson from 2025 is not that stability will return, but not in the short term. Resilience must be designed in by default by all stakeholders to ride the wave of 2026.
